In a sufficiently precarious international situation, the Moroccan economy will return to growth in 2023. This is the assessment that we draw from the 24 pages of the “Exploratory Budget 2024” drawn up by the High Commission for Planning.
“National economic growth is expected to show a recovery of 3.3% in 2023,” said HCP analysts. Indeed in the “Exploratory Budget 2024”, depicting the economic situation of the current year and the prospects for the one to come, the experts are counting on a recovery. And this despite a still deleterious international context.
As for the economy, the HCP notes a deceleration in the cost of energy raw materials. Starting with oil. According to the institution’s experts, global demand for black gold is expected to decline. Consequently, “The price of the latter should thus average $80/barrel this year, a drop of 20% compared to the 2022 average”. Ditto for coal and natural gas. Their price “is expected to fall sharply by more than half in 2023 and decline further in 2024”. In this context, inflation should decelerate in 2023. On the other hand, it will still be above its pre-pandemic level and the target levels of the central banks beyond 2024, specifies the report.
International prospects at half mast
Based on cross-data from renowned financial institutions (World Bank and Banque de France), the HCP anticipates (overall) a slowdown in global economic growth over the next two years. It “should slow down in 2023 to 2.7%, after 3.3% in 2022 to recover slowly and approach 2.9% in 2024”, mentions the document. As a reason for this deceleration, the tightening of monetary policies causing the decline in investments, the financial risk, and of course the conflict in Ukraine which remains a heavy threat.
Same subject: The consumer price index recorded an increase of 7.1%
Thus, growth should fall in advanced countries. From 2.6% in 2022 to 0.7% in 2023, and should remain weak in 2024. The euro zone would experience a sharp slowdown from 3.5% in 2022 to 0.4% in 2023. Conversely, the prospects are bright for emerging economies. Their growth should resume in 2023 to reach 4% after 3.7% in 2022.
In Morocco, growth notwithstanding…
As a direct consequence of this international conjecture, the growth of world trade is taking a beating. It “should slow down significantly to 1.7% in 2023 against 6% in 2022 before recovering to 2.8% in 2024”, underlines the source. For Morocco, this translates concretely into the weakening of world demand. “In this constraining international economic context, global demand addressed to Morocco is expected to slow down from 5.8% in 2020 to 2.4% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024,” we read.
Notwithstanding this state of affairs, national economic activity should revitalize in 2023 and continue its momentum in 2024, indicates the HCP. In figures, the organization projects GDP growth of 3.3% this year, and 3.6% the following year. This growth would be mainly driven, in 2023, by the primary sector, which should register “an increase of around 6.6% after a sharp decline of 12.7% in 2022. The tertiary sector, although in slight decline, adds to this momentum with growth of 4.2% in 2023 after 5.4% in 2022, thus contributing positively to GDP growth of 2.3 points. For its part, “the secondary sector should generate a slight increase in added value of 0.3% in 2023 against a drop of 1.7% recorded in 2022”.
Clearly, the HCP augurs better prospects for the Moroccan economy in an international environment still subject to uncertainty. Projections which thus restore a glimmer of hope on the objectives of the New Development Model.
